About 1.5 million less than what you thought. Most population figures are based on a highly flawed 1997 projection. The number cited is 3.8 million, but turns out that the actual number, based on actual Palestinian figures, is more like 2.4 million. Read the report at pademographics.com. The Web site aint pretty but the implications are certainly interesting.
The claim that Jews will become a minority in the region are incorrect. Since 1967, Jews have maintained their 60% majority in Israel, West Bank and Gaza and since 1990, the Jewish population has grown by 2.5% a year, only a slight fraction below the growth rate in the West Bank. The declines in Palestinian Arab growth rates and the vitality of Jewish growth rates which are the highest among Western democracies, will preserve this ratio.
The Israeli Arab growth rate of 3.1% was augmented by the influx of 150,000 Arabs from the West Bank and Gaza. The Israeli Arab natural rate of increase remained at 2.1%. Additionally, many observers have misidentified all non-Jews as “Palestinian Arabs.” Many groups, such as the Druze and non-Jewish immigrants, identify themselves as Israelis, not as Arabs. Israel is becoming more multicultural not more Arab.
Thanks to Rabbi Yo for the heads up!