About 1.5 million less than what you thought. Most population figures are based on a highly flawed 1997 projection. The number cited is 3.8 million, but turns out that the actual number, based on actual Palestinian figures, is more like 2.4 million. Read the report at pademographics.com. The Web site aint pretty but the implications are certainly interesting.

The claim that Jews will become a minority in the region are incorrect. Since 1967, Jews have maintained their 60% majority in Israel, West Bank and Gaza and since 1990, the Jewish population has grown by 2.5% a year, only a slight fraction below the growth rate in the West Bank. The declines in Palestinian Arab growth rates and the vitality of Jewish growth rates which are the highest among Western democracies, will preserve this ratio.

The Israeli Arab growth rate of 3.1% was augmented by the influx of 150,000 Arabs from the West Bank and Gaza. The Israeli Arab natural rate of increase remained at 2.1%. Additionally, many observers have misidentified all non-Jews as “Palestinian Arabs.” Many groups, such as the Druze and non-Jewish immigrants, identify themselves as Israelis, not as Arabs. Israel is becoming more multicultural not more Arab.

Thanks to Rabbi Yo for the heads up!

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About the author

ck

Founder and Publisher of Jewlicious, David Abitbol lives in Jerusalem with his wife, newborn daughter and toddler son. Blogging as "ck" he's been blocked on twitter by the right and the left, so he's doing something right.

38 Comments

  • By the way, I would edit that but I still have no access, even though I noticed you increased my ranking to 8. Very weird.

  • you can only edit other poster’s posts if you’re the admin now – apparently. Or something. I dunno. I’ll try and figure it out. And I reposted because Rabbi Yo said he sa4hem last night and they were cool (the folks behind the study).

  • Well, I should point out that it’s always fun reading his blog. If you’re reading this, Rabbi or Rachel, shalom!

    When you get a chance, ck, the comment numbers on IE are still not showing in full.

  • Thank you T_M!
    I have to admit that I was expecting a politically motivated extreme presentation. That is how this survey first was reviewed in the press in the winter time. However, I left the lecture very impressed by the professional and scientific methods that they applied. They did not use projections, but rather actual numbers. Best of all, nearly the entire survey was based on PA Ministry figures! In other words: The PA’s own internal numbers do not add up to the 3.8 million they claim. This has major ramifications because policy makers and aid distribution are greatly influenced by demographics. And while 1.4 million people in a Chinese census would not register as problem, that represents more than 50 percent of the population under the PA.

  • Hi Rabbi, hope all is well with you and yours. I have to admit that they make a very compelling case. Also, the recent elections where Abbas got elected had this weird thing happen near the end where they only had about 1.2 million registered voters, and suddenly that number became around 1.8 million in the final week.

    Needless to say, the demographics are part of what is driving Sharon’s moves, and one of the questions that arises from this study is whether Israel is making political calculations based upon faulty information.

  • Mobius, if the 3.8 million is false and 2.4 is right, then how do you know 9 million is right? Where did you come up with that number?

  • here

    and if you want to call those figures into question, i ask how you know there are 13 million jews worldwide and whether you fully trust those estimates.

  • Um, Mobius, with all due respect, and with a profound understanding of your desire to ensure that the Palestinians have indeed reproduced at a rapid rate despite all of the difficulties you regularly blame on Israel, the entire point of this post is that those numbers you are quoting are unreliable.

    These numbers quote the same 3.7 million number that may actually be 2.4 million. Call it the Jenin-500-massacred syndrome, if you will, where actually nobody was massacred but some Palestinian leaders were comfortable bandying about figures like 3000, and then 500.

    As for the Israeli Census Bureau counting about 5.5 million Jews in Israel, the US Jewish Organizations counting a diminishing number of Jews of around 5.3 million, down form 6.2 million at the last major counting, and the Canadian Jewish organizations total of about 500,000 Canadian Jews being used as a basis for counting at least 11 million Jews in the world…I do think those numbers are more sound.

    I have no idea where people count the other 3 million Jews. Nor do I care. You’re the one who brought up the 9 million Palestinians number and your evidence is the same source as the faulty 3.7 million.

    Sorry.

  • Sid and Al, two Jewish men, were in Mexico having a meal
    in a restaurant. Sid asked Al, “Are there any people of our faith
    born and raised in Mexico?”

    Al replied, “I don’t know, let’s ask our waiter.”

    When the waiter came by, Al asked him, “Are there any
    Mexican Jews?” and the waiter said, “I don’t know Senor,
    I’ll ask the cooks.”

    He returned from the kitchen in a few minutes and said “No
    sir, no Mexican Jews.”

    Al wasn’t really satisfied with that and asked, “Are you
    absolutely sure?”

    The waiter, realizing he was dealing with “Gringos” gave the
    expected answer, “I will check again, Senor!” and went back
    into the kitchen.

    While the waiter was away, Sid said, “I find it hard to
    believe that there are no Jews in Mexico. Our people are
    scattered everywhere.”

    The waiter returned and said, “Senor, the head cook said
    there is no Mexican Jews.”

    “Are you certain?” Al asked once again, “I can’t believe
    there are no Mexican Jews!”

    “Senor, I ask EVERYONE,” replied the exasperated waiter.
    “All we have is orange Jews, prune Jews, tomato Jews and
    grape Jews.”

  • with a profound understanding of your desire to ensure that the Palestinians have indeed reproduced at a rapid rate despite all of the difficulties you regularly blame on Israel

    with all due respect, go fuck yourself.

    Call it the Jenin-500-massacred syndrome, if you will, where actually nobody was massacred but some Palestinian leaders were comfortable bandying about figures like 3000, and then 500.

    if 52 jews die at arab hands, it’s a massacre. if 52 arabs die at jewish hands, meh, they were just killed.

    you’re such a douche.

  • I don’t think most rational people have trouble calling Baruch Goldstein killing much less than 52 Arabs a massacre — because it was, he walked in and killed a bunch of unarmed civilians at prayer. The difference in Jenin? Well, when Arabs kill 52 Jews, let’s say in a few bus bombings in the space of a few days, they’re purposely killing innocent, non-combatant civilians by attacking a non-military target. Whereas Jenin was a military operation against armed enemy combatants who, brave martyrs that they are, were hiding among unarmed women, children and old people in a refugee camp.

    You see the difference? Jenin was a military force engaging another (pseudo) military force. A bus bombing is an irregular blowing up a bunch of kids on their way to school. And yep, it’s a massacre.

  • Mobi – the level of your discourse is so… progressive*, so *enlightened* – I am SO impressed by the combination of *DEEP RESPECT* for all opinions and deep, probing intellectual analysis – to say nothing of your *steadfat* adherence to fact.

    We all know how those disgusting, weasely “self-loving” Jews wrap themselves in patriotic platitudes when faced with unpleasant truths – so I *thank you* for showing them how liberals take the high road.

  • Watch out themiddle,

    The mobius uses the word douche and the

    “F” word!

    He is a mighty foe!

    His arguments and information are
    unimpressive and his opinion seems seems to
    come from the same place as his language.

    Is he Mobius of Jewschool fame?

    It reeks of that. I don’t care for it.
    However, you got to love Israel for tolerating
    such extremism. I personally have trouble
    doing so.

    I found this blog mostly informative except for
    a few comments.

  • oh, i’m sorry, i should have couched my go “fuck yourself” beneath the same veneer of “discourse” which TM did. or was that not the whole point of his vile remark? he should’ve just outright called me a race traitor. after all, it’s what he was thinking!

    ben david, i’m not a liberal, i’m a post-leftist anarchist. liberals and conservatives are both nitwits, yourself being no exception.

    as per the purity of our motives in jenin, i recommend you hear it from the horse’s mouth.

  • The article you linked to proves nothing… This guy is not the only one who “didn’t see any bodies under the blade of the tractor” – neither did the UN and Red Cross inspectors.

    Typical leftie maneuver – singling out one totally emotional, non-factual profile of someone who may be a bit punch-drunk, but is hardly a beast – and STREEEEETCHING that to paint the entire IDF as brutal stormtroppers.

    Facts? Reality? Context?
    HEEE HAWWW

    The only “horse” around here is you, Mobi – and it ain’t your *mouth* that you seem to be talking out of…

  • Wild, man, just wild.

    I was just thinking how this site was getting even more racier. Pr0n stars and now cussing and swearing too. Slap me, you’re my bitch!

  • Um, Mobi, you need to work on your veneer. It’s called politeness – and it’s acceptable even in debate.

    So let’s review:

    1. Jews aren’t a race, therefore I couldn’t possibly be calling you a race traitor.

    2. I didn’t see the word traitor anywhere, I merely pointed out the irony of a person who is on the far left of the Arab-Israeli conflict, particularly on the Palestinian front, trying to make a point by alluding to what can only be described as a very healthy birth rate among Palestinians despite their conflict with Israel.

    3. A douche is a shower in French. N’est ce pas, ck?

    4. Here’s some reading for you about Jenin. Read and learn the difference between a battle and a massacre. You should be aware that your offense here is egregious (note: this does not mean, “Go fuck yourself, Mobius,” but rather it means, “Pay attention, young snothead”) in that the IDF not only circled the camp for two days prior to entering, warning over loudspeakers that all civilians should leave – which most did – but then was respectful of Palestinian lives to the point where they sent in their forces for close range urban warfare, whereas they could have been safer if they had simply used artillery or air strikes to “soften” Jenin.

    In other words, Mobius, your ignorance about this event is staggering. Here’s some information to assist in your education.

    He admits the wanted men were ready for the IDF’s offensive on the camp, “the second `Defensive Shield’ (said in Hebrew) started and you went into Ramallah.”

    He says mines were planted to hit soldiers and tanks (during questioning he also admitted booby trapping houses with gas canisters). “All locally produced, from coal and agricultural fertilizers,” he says. “We deployed armed men at the entrances. The residents did not resist when they came into their homes. When the fighting started, I myself asked the civilians to leave the camp so they would not get hurt.”

    During the fighting, he says “between 80 to 100 men from all the organizations [took part]. There was no real command.” Mardawi says he killed two soldiers with a short barrel M16. “I hit three soldiers from a few meters away. Two of them died. I heard their commander report over the walkie talkie, behind a wall.”

    Mardawi admits he never saw an Israeli soldier take aim or fire at women or children. “I saw a couple of dead women and a wounded child. Your helicopters shot at houses where there were civilians.”

    Was there a massacre?

    “This whole war is a massacre,” he retorts, “what’s a couple of dozen people against tanks and bulldozers?”

    Source

    He mourns his 23 dead comrades and argues that the high casualty rate could have been avoided by different tactics.

    “I am an old soldier. If there is something I can blame the army for in Jenin, it was that it did not use its force. It put too many restraints on its power and by this put its soldiers in big danger,” Sgt Kaspi said. “This is why we lost so many casualties. If we had used only a small part of our real power – planes, cannons and tanks, though we did use tanks, though only hesitantly – if we had used all that power, we could have saved the lives of our soldiers.

    “I remember when we got near Beirut, we began training to get in there. We trained for bulldozers to go in on their own and 155mm cannon to go in there. Only after that, it was the infantry.

    “This time, the infantry went first and put their heads on the block. We went to clear the camp house by house with infantry.”

    He quarrelled over the tactics, urging that the Beirut pattern should be adopted. “But the army did not want to do that. We paid a high price. I call it stupid.”

    He added: “We do all the things we should do [to fight humanely] and we get blamed for it. We fight like girls and we are accused of a massacre.”

    (this is originally from the Boston Globe)

    Asked if he felt any massacre had occurred, Arsam said: ”We killed them and they killed us, but we were victorious.”

    Abdel Rahman Sa’adi, 14, another Islamic Jihad grenade-thrower, said he was one of a group of 11 adults and seven young men who surrendered upon Israeli demand. He said they were confined in a courtyard near the camp to which the Israeli troops brought dozens of other men and women.

    ”They told all the small kids to just leave, and they let all the women go after they checked their bags,” said Sa’adi, who has braces and was wearing a baseball cap. ”None of them were kept for questioning.”

    ”Of course the Palestinians won” this battle, he said, because ”they did not shake our morale. This was a massacre of the Jews, not of us.”

    Prompted by bystanders, he revised his statement. ”I think there was a massacre here – maybe 100 people,” he said.

    (originally in Al-Ahram)

    “Of all the fighters in the West Bank we were the best prepared,” he says. “We started working on our plan: to trap the invading soldiers and blow them up from the moment the Israeli tanks pulled out of Jenin last month.”

    Omar and other “engineers” made hundreds of explosive devices and carefully chose their locations.

    “We had more than 50 houses booby-trapped around the camp. We chose old and empty buildings and the houses of men who were wanted by Israel because we knew the soldiers would search for them,” he said.

    “We cut off lengths of mains water pipes and packed them with explosives and nails. Then we placed them about four metres apart throughout the houses – in cupboards, under sinks, in sofas.”

    The fighters hoped to disable the Israeli army’s tanks with much more powerful bombs placed inside rubbish bins on the street. More explosives were hidden inside the cars of Jenin’s most wanted men.

    Connected by wires, the bombs were set off remotely, triggered by the current from a car battery.

    According to Omar, everyone in the camp, including the children, knew where the explosives were located so that there was no danger of civilians being injured. It was the one weakness in the plan.

    …and he continues…

    And what about the explosion and ambush last Tuesday which killed 13 soldiers?

    “They were lured there,” he says. “We all stopped shooting and the women went out to tell the soldiers that we had run out of bullets and were leaving.” The women alerted the fighters as the soldiers reached the booby-trapped area.

    “When the senior officers realised what had happened, they shouted through megaphones that they wanted an immediate cease-fire. We let them approach to retrieve the men and then opened fire.

    “Some of the soldiers were so shocked and frightened that they mistakenly ran towards us.”

    —————

    So just to be clear, Mobius, there was no massacre, the 20 civilians who were killed of the 52 Palestinians killed in Jenin, were there of their own choice, and were killed primarily because the Palestinian fighters decided to make it a war zone regardless of consequences to themselves, the civilians or the Israelis. This was the case even though the Israelis went out of their way, at great risk which ended up costing Israeli lives, to avoid an attack on Jenin that would have killed Palestinians unnecessarily.

    Oh, and calling me names doesn’t prove that your Palestinian population totals are right. Nor does it change the fact that you keep bashing Israel, and often unfairly, as this discussion exemplifies. I’m sure you’re a nice guy and have nothing personal against you, but these debates are also about learning from each other. So how about you focus on the topic at hand, and stop cursing me? Thanks.

  • My comment # 22, which for some reason is not showing up in the “recent comments,” has a number of newspaper article quotes that I would put into block quotes IF I COULD EDIT. Go into the edit mode, highlight the quotation from the newspaper, and click on the bloc-quote option.

  • I realize that I should be able to edit them…and that’s what I’ve been trying to tell you for a number of days now. At this point, the only posts and comments that I can enter and edit are those in my own or in Esther’s posts and comments. Anything else is closed to me. And I still can’t see any comment numbers in the double digits in IE.

  • I learned at one point that trying to impress
    people with tough talking foul language is a
    very weak tool for persuasion. I remember
    Juniour High talking like that and the US Navy
    . I suppose in the case of the Navy it was the
    language of authority. We listened to the
    Chief when he talked like that. When just
    another seaman would talk the kaka, we didn’t
    listen….

    Later, I became a firefighter for front line
    crews in Northern California, mostly in forests
    and mountains. The training was certainly
    more severe then the military training I got in
    comparison. Often the crew leaders were
    women. I was never a crew leader, but I knew
    that the crew leaders were trained not to use
    cussing. It could be the mixed environment
    that lead to that policy or state wide political
    correctness, I don’t know for sure. For sure it
    was enforced policy.That was a civilian
    position, but the severity and intensity of the
    work was equal to or greater then what is
    expected of most military work. Like military,
    there was accident, devastation and death.

    No one here so far as I know has any authority
    to talk like hot stuff.

    One of the first things I realized as a seaman
    and fireman, which would hold true for a
    soldier as well, is that I had very little idea what the whole picture is or why we did a lot of what we did. In some ways that relieved us of the
    worry of strategic command so we can focus
    on our main mission to be in a fighting crew.
    There were very few people who really knew
    what was happening. I wasn’t of rank to know
    those.

    If the soldier doesn’t really know what is going
    on, because that is not a job requirement,
    even though he or she might have actually
    physically seen some of what happens; then
    how much more so, the press, media, activisits
    and extremists on either side, enemies or even
    friends however you define that,

    In the case of the Mobius, I have some
    doubts…..

    are clueless

  • TM: First, stop using ie. please start using firefox. Also I cannot replicate any of your issues at all. I’ll try again tomorrow. Oh also, muffti and I are gonna be playing internet risk on Sunday for a week. Wanna play too?

  • Middle – can I email you directly about the Jewish education topic? I read some articles over Shabbat that I’d like to share.
    Ben-David

  • Jews hate Palestinians so much…as this topic shows just by existing. No wonder Israelis get blown up.

  • it doesn’t, not since the server switch. Do not email him at that address Ben David. TM? Go to your dashboard manage/comments then do a search for Ben-David. His email address is there.

  • There is no such nation palestinians – there is
    an arab nation, arab muslims.

    They concured OUR HEBREW LAND, the land of our fathers, and we finally got part of it back.

    Now our testicle-less Israeli goverment tries to
    talk to these arab bandits, but in a few years,
    this goverment will fall, and a new goverment will
    rise, that will finally SOLVE THIS ARAB PROBLEM.

    All arabs that will wich to become Jews may stay
    in our land and live by OUR BIBLE RULE.

    Others will have to leave peacifully back to their
    desert countries.

    These who will no leave peacifully or JOIN US,
    will be drawn from Israel Land by FORCE.

    This Prophecy Now Incoming to the REaL WoRlD.
    That I Said – And that Shall BE DONE.

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