Mubarak and Barack probably discussing Ehud

Excuse me, while I put on my Jewish spectacles. They allow me to see things as they might affect Israel or the Jewish community.

So.. the riots and goverment changes in Tunis have moved to Egypt. Mubarak has appointed a Vice President, and perhaps taken a trip to London, or maybe the Sinai. I am assuming the presidential prospects for his son in the short term are not so good. And what if Mubarak leaves? Will more Islamic parties gain in power? Will chaos cause law enforcement on the border with Gaza? Will ship traffic on the Suez Canal change? Will more sharks swim near Sharm El Sheik?

Israel can be a great unifying scapegoat for old or new leaders. And what about Damascus and Amman? Are they next?

I think I will take off these glasses so that I can enjoy the riots a little more, and imagine it is a benign movement for greater democracy

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larry

13 Comments

  • Two things worry me. One is that I see protest signs showing Mubarak with a big Jewish star on his forehead… conflating Israel and the evil dictator. Although Egypt had a treaty with Israel, the person on the street seems as angry about Israel as about Mubarak. As you know, inspiring hatred of Israel is something Arab dictators have used as a distraction for years. Mubarak was a pragmatist, however, and based on what I’ve read, not especially dangerous to Israel. If there is a more pro-Islamic regime, will they maintain peace with Israel?

    The other thing that worries me is most of the protesters are young and male. That does not bode well for women’s rights under a new regime. I think Americans always hope a popular uprising means a new and progressive regime, but in the Muslim world, it often seems to end up being a new version of represssive, run by religious leaders rather than a secular dictator. And that may not be good for the Jews or women or even the educated people in Egypt.

    • I agree a 100%. Nature abhors a vacuum. The brotherhood is the only other well organized institution. If the military falls along with Mubarak as sure as night follows day the brotherhood will assume control.

      Egypt is not the same as Tunisia. The Brotherhood is not well positioned in Tunisia as Egypt. Tunisians although nominally an Arab country however they are also substantially Berber. Tunisians are also much better educated and much less impoverished relative to Egypt. And for now the Military. the real power, did not fall in Tunisia did not fall.

      It is unclear if ordinary Egyptian soldiers should it become necessary will be willing to use force or equally important that their loyalties have not been compromised.

  • Larry, if Mubarak is pushed out, the big question becomes whether the Brotherhood can take over. If they can, or if the new leader uses Israel as a cudgel with which to beat down opponents, Israel’s entire military doctrine will have to be revamped. The Egyptians have an American supplied military with American tanks and jets. US military have been frustrated to find that the Egyptians keep doing military exercises with Israel as the prospective enemy. Still, they participated. Now, Israel has something very real to worry about. The best thing so far to have come out of all of this is that Israel has held fast to their peace agreement with Egypt regarding permitting only a limited Egyptian force in the Sinai.

  • Whatever the merits of having supported Mubarak for three decades, the chickens are coming home to roost for Israel and the US. It’s hard to imagine there won’t be consequences for Western interests, including Israel’s.

    • Tom, Israel had to negotiate with whoever was in charge. The end result was three decades of peace and innumerable lives spared. The Egyptian people people will do whatever it is they feel compelled to do and we in Israel will deal with the consequences. I hope the path to Democracy in Egypt is as bloodless as possible and that the Egyptian people realize that both good governance AND continued peace is in their very best interests.

  • If the protesters bring down the US/Israeli backed Mubarak dictatorship and win their freedom and cause the formation of a true multi-party democracy in Egypt, then Israel won’t be allowed to treat Muslims in Israel like garbage, and won’t be able to imprison Palestinians in the giant open air prison known as Gaza any more, because the Egyptian government will be responsive to the demands of the Egyptian people to stop Israeli crimes and apartheid. This will be progress, IMHO.

    • Um Bulletproof, Muslims in Israel have more civil rights than Muslims in any other Arab and most Muslim countries including Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Syria, etc. By the way, if you’re looking for apartheid, I would look at Saudi Arabia long before Israel.

  • My concern today is with Mohammed ElBaradei

    The US tv networks made him out to be the chief opposition leader.

    Why?

    Because he has a suit and can speak English?

    Does anyone in Egypt among the street protestors, military officers or ruling elites know who he is?

    He has many intnl contacts from his 11 or 12 yrs with the IAEA atomic energy group. A lot of good they did !

    Anyway, the main thing is… what we hear on tv .. and what really goes on behind the scenese are two different things in most case

    • I enjoyed this idiotic comment on that website:

      “#
      Martin Sandberger
      Sunday,
      January 30, 2011
      5:33 pm

      These writers have much to be envious of Egypt, because even Mubarak was a perfect democrat compared to ziostan.”

      seriously?

  • Martin Sandberger is the name of a Nazi. On that site, many of the writers believe that middle-of-the-road Zionists are no different than the neo-Nazis they have publishing comments on their posts. The far-Left has gone insane.

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