John Brown of Jewschool brings to our attention that according to the US State Dept. the demographic balance from the ocean to the Jordan River, when you count in the territories, is now more Arabs than Jews (5.3 million to 5.2 million). This came out in the 2004 Human Rights report they generate annually.

The section on Israel and the Occupied Territories states that the population of Israel stands at 6.8 million, of whom 5.2 million are Jews, 1.3 million Arabs and another 290,000 are other minorities. The report then notes that the Palestinian population of the Gaza Strip stands at approximately 1.4 million while in the West Bank it is approximately 2.4 million. There are 237,185 Palestinians in Occupied [sic] East Jerusalem. Therefore the Arab population stands at over 5.3 million while the Jewish population stands at 5.2 million.

John represents the far Left view of things and he’s probably salivating at this spectactular new tool he has for undermining Israel’s legitimacy. But he’s just a harbinger of things to come. Expect the drumbeat for a single state “solution” to start banging loudly very soon.

It should be noted that there is at least one serious group contesting the traditional population count of the Palestinians, claiming it is significantly lower than most estimates show. We also know that the PA was very worried prior to the January election because only about 1.25 million Palestinians registered to vote. Mysteriously, another 600,000 or so registrations suddenly appeared in the last two weeks before the election.

You can read an article condensing the debate about whether the numbers are right here. To go to the source, the group boldly challenging the commonly accepted numbers, you can go here. You can download the entire report. I have to admit that when they came out, I dismissed them out of hand, but their report is compelling and definitely raises some questions about the official numbers. Here, let me quote from them, but please read it with a grain of salt because they are, in fact, no less politically motivated than the people on the Left wanting a single state solution:

Arab Population in the West Bank and Gaza

The assumption that Arabs in the West Bank and Gaza pose a demographic threat to Israel has to be radically revised. The 2004 Palestinian-Arab population was closer to 2.4 million than to the 3.8 million reported by Palestinian Authority (PA) officials. These findings should have a significant impact on politicians, policy makers and international aid agencies.

The million-and-a-half person gap occurred because the PA numbers are based on Palestine Bureau of Statistics (PBS) 1997 projections, not on actual population counts. The PBS used the PA’s official 1997 census as a base population and assumed the population would grow at 4 to 5% a year, one of the highest growth rates in the world. PA Ministry of Health birth data and actual border entry/exit data, confirm that the PBS expectations were not met in any year between 1997 and 2004. There were dramatically fewer births and lower fertility rates, and instead of immigration, the West Bank and Gaza experienced a steady net emigration. When the PBS incorrect assumptions are applied over many years, the error in population forecast compounds exponentially.

*Fewer births: PA Ministry of Health birth reports were substantially lower than the number predicted by the PBS.

*Lower Fertility Rates: Palestinian fertility rates declined from the mid-90’s through 2003, according to PA Ministry of Health, consistent with the trend occurring in other Middle Eastern Arab societies.

*Net Emigration: Instead of the large immigration originally projected by the PA, the West BAnk and Gaza experienced a steady net emigration averaging 10,000 a year.

*Double Counting: 210,000 Jerusalem Arabs who are already counted in Israel’s population survey were included in the PA survey.

*Inclusion of non-residents: Palestinians with IDs living abroad for over one year were included in the PA Census & Projection.

*Internal migration: 150,000 PA Arabs who have legally relocated to Israel since 1993 are still counted by the PA.

*Retrospective Alterations of Recorded Birth data.

The PA’s Central Election Commission press release of October 14 2004 acknowledged that the number of eligible voters living in the West Bank and Gaza was only 1.3 million.

The resident population in January 2004 was 2.4 million: 1.35 million in the West Bank and 1.07 million in Gaza in January 2004.

Of course, what this group claims doesn’t carry the same weight as what the US State Dept. tells the world, but there we are…

Did I mention that the disengagement from Gaza would remove 1.3-1.4 million Palestinians from under Israel’s control?

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  • Further examination of the numbers reveals that the large increase in Palestinian Arab population began with Israel’s “oppressive occupation” of the West Bank and Gaza. Those *nasty* Israelis *forced* their *colonial Western culture* on those poor noble Palestinian savages – bringing things like clean fresh water, toilets, electricity, and modern medicine – all unheard of during the years of “benevolent Jordanian administration” (or maybe the Palestinian nationality just hadn’t been invented yet…) on top of it all, the prospect of a good, paying job in Israel ( AKA “exploitation that has corrupted Israeli society”) actually drew 10,000 to 30,000 Jordanians a year into the Israeli-administered territories.

    Now that the Israelis no longer administer the West Bank, things have predictably slid back down to 3rd world levels. Infant mortality up, nutrition and medical care down – and widespread practice of “traditional Arab methods of population control” like honor and clan-based killings. Now the Arabs emigrate from the West Bank.

    Be careful what you wish for, Ahmed – you just might get it…

  • The latest figures show a constant 60% Jewish:40% ‘other’ ratio between the river and the sea over the past 30years.

    Just thought I’d repost this as well:

    Read anything posted here:

    “Indeed, the total fertility rate of Palestinian women has been trending downward in recent years. Palestinian women in Judea and Samaria averaged 4.1 children in 1999 and 3.4 in 2003. Palestinian women in Gaza averaged 5 children each in 1999 and 4.7 in 2003.”

  • What I can’t really figure out is why the palestinians, suffering from massive and ongoing genocide inflicted by the racist Nazi-Israeli-apartheid regime on a scale not seen since the days of Auschwitz, still manage to breed lke rabbits.

    Do those Nazi Jews define genocide differently from everyone else? Most people define genocide as physically exterminating an entire people. The Jews seem to define it as creating economic conditions that allow for an unprecedented increase in the population targeted for genocide. Very clever, those Jews.

    Still, this just shows that you must be careful. It’s just like those damn Jews to twist the meaning of words in attempt to blnd honest people to the truth. It just shows you can never let your guard down when dealing with these spawn of Shaitan.

  • I did turn it on this morning, but when it came across your post, it detected some anger underlying the sarcasm. 😉

  • Of course there’s anger. That’s what sarcasm is: disguised anger. Either well-disguised or poorly disguised, but anger nonetheless.

    The PLO claims that Israel is committing genocide against the palestinians and either murder their own people or stage their murder to prove it (Mohammad al-Dura); then, in the same breath, they claim that the palestinian population West of the Jordan is increasing at such a rate that the Jews are swiftly becoming a minority in their own land. The anti-Semites and the credulous parrot these lies without understanding that they are mutually exclusive. In any case, I a sure that the PLO number sare totally bogus, just like Josh says.

    If Israel were committing genocide against the palestinians, the palestinian population would be decreasing instead of increasing, and, thus, there would be no palestinian demographic “time-bomb”. The fact that people can say there is a demographic time bomb just proves that Israel is not committing genocide or anything of the sort.

    It was a huge mistake for Israel to have wasted resources it could have used for Jews and instead squandered them on Arabs who just resent having to rely on Jewish largesse. Schools, mosques, hospitals, roads, electricty, water, you name it. All because of Jewish rachmanut on the unfortunate. “Let’s hlep them, maybe they won’t hate us.” And look what happens.

    Israel should have followed the Jordanian model: neglect the West Bank completely. I know a Christian palestinian born in the US whose parents emigrated to San Francisco from Ramallah in 1957. Why? Israeli oppression? Nope. Because the Jordanians didn’t spend a single dinar on the West Bank, much less on any Christian Arabs, but devoted all of their development eforts on the area around Amman on the Islamic, Bedouin East Bank, leaving Ran=mallah to rot. The result? People emigrated looking for a better life. If Israel had any sense, that’s what they would have done too.

    But it’s OK. As soon as the PA sinks its claws and fangs into the whole ball of wax, it will revert completely to the hell hole it was before Israel came into posession of it (it is already happening in all of the PA areas) and people will start leaving in droves. Just look at Um-el Fahm: Israel suggested redrawing the border so that without anyone having to move an inch, Um-el Fahm would be in “Palestine” instead of Israel and the residents could be united with their palestinian “brothers” and be relieved of the burden of living in the Zionist hell. So what happened? They screamed bloody murder and refused to hear of it. By staying in Israel, they can suck up money that should go to Jews and reap all of the benefits of being Israeli, all the while vilifying the state and fomenting insurrection, sedition and terrorism.

    Angre? Yeah, just a little.

    BTW, I am not acusing anyone here of buying in to the idea that Israel actually is committing genocide against the palestinians. I’m just objecting on general principle to the arrant hypocrisy of the anti-Israel crowd.

  • I betcha there are really only a couple of hundred Palestinians, and they just keep moving around so that it looks like there are more… 🙂

  • “The PLO claims that Israel is committing genocide against the palestinians ”
    and when Suha said that the real Hillary kissed her,

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