230px_Snpp.gifHere’s a smattering of estimates that may make you quake in your boots next time you try to believe the latest intelligence as given by the media.

Iran stopped nuclear weapons work in 2003

May 22 2006
Israel: Iran ‘months’ from making nukes

May 18, 2006
IRAN: Tehran needs 3-5 years to build nuclear weapons

August 2005
Iran’s Is Judged 10 Years From Nuclear Bomb

July 2004
About three years would be “reasonable” for the Iranians to take control of the [nuclear] technology, learn how to use it and weaponize it

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  • Well, heck, them good ol’ boys down in the CIA been keeping this puppy a secret?

    This makes as much sense as crawdads in apple juice.

    I guess we be needing some of that Iranian oil, see, and well, we cant be buying it from some nuke-maniacs, now can we?

    Nah, so you see, we gots to revise our estimates. Yeh, thats it. Yeh thats the ticket.
    We was all wrong befores

    Them Persians got some good crude oil and heck, we got that pipeline broke up north in Canada land.

    Well, them ZIONISTS must be behind this new Iran thing. You know what I mean?

  • … muffti, you still hold from CNN?

    There’s your problem right there…

  • Heh, B-D, Muffti knew you’d astutely notice that so he made sure only 2 of the 5 links were CNN ones! But honestly, this is only a taste of the many, many contradictory messages and predictions put out. Either spy-games are extremely hard to play and officials should be more careful before they speak or, ast hte good rabbi suggests, someone(s) is pulling a lot of emotional strings with selective intelligence…

  • Comment from another blog on this story:

    “From Einstein’s letter to FDR in 1939 to the first A-Bomb in 1945 was only six years.”

    You do the math.

  • There’s nothing “spurious” about the historical fact, in addition to taking into account that the 6 decade old technology is already developed, widespread and even junior can Google and find enough information on the web to jumpstart atom bomb making.

    But don’t let the metziyus get in your way.

  • GM-

    I gots me a gnu theory.

    The war mongering went on for so long that we could not keep up the drum beats any longer. We have to rewind, and then start them up again.

    This news discredits the Atom watchers in Vienna, the Israelis, and … the Iranians.

    Instead of making Ahmeddinnerjacket into a Ogre, they make him into an impudent little prick with no bomb.

    This gnu attempt in order to embolden so-called opposition in Iran, deflate Mahmoud’s international grand Muslim messiah-hood, and make all the folks that have been betting their horses and political capital backing Mahmoud, that they got had by a rug salesman.

  • If it’s so easy, why doesn’t every one have one including junior? The americans managed to do it in such a short time by having nearly unlimited resources thrown at it and a lack of massive external international pressure. Similarl for the russians. It took most other countries that have it international cooperation (Iraq and Israel with the French if muffti recalls) and considerable danger from neighbouring countries (we know what happened to the iraq one).

    So good luck to junior building one and assembling materials within 6 years.

  • This story needs some time to play itself out. The American intelligence assessment speaks of moderate confidence in their findings while the Israeli Defense Minister stands by the Israeli assessment that the program is ongoing.

    Ahmedinejad himself has stated that the enrichment program continues…which if false, would be a lie similar to Hussein’s lies about his arsenal of WMDs before the Iraq war.

    Let’s wait and see.

  • TM – Enrichment does /= weapons making.

    Here is the telling part of the NIE debacle for me….Bush denies having heard anything about the information inside of it despite the fact the information could have easily been provided by Bush’s own NID Mike McConnell. In fact, Bush admits that McConnell made him aware of the NIE in August, but was somehow NOT told of the new information contained within its pages. I mean, are you KIDDING ME? You are the President of the United States, the commander -in-Chief of the U.S. Armed Forces, and when presented with the opportunity to hear ‘new information’ on the Iranian weapons program (or lack thereof), he passed as it were and instead went on talking about World War III and banging the war drums.

    Combine this with Stephen Hadley’s pathetic attempt at spinning this information (just read the transcript of his press conference) and you have two telling signs that the Bush Administration has simply been WRONG about Iran and that despite their knowledge that they had been wrong, they were continuing to put out extreme rhetoric in an attempt to ratchet support for a military attack inside Iran.

  • Dear Elon, I don’t know what enrichment does or doesn’t do. If you want to convert an enrichment program into a weapons program, I understand that it’s not that difficult to make the change. I also don’t know what Iran wants or doesn’t want, although their president has indicated that he wants enriched uranium and even the UN agrees that 3000 centrifuges exist there today.

    This “debacle” is not quite a “debacle.” A couple of years ago, the same intelligence agencies were confident of an opposite assessment and a couple of years ago was two years after 2003. That’s why I don’t trust either the assessment from back then or this one.

    As of this writing, Ehud Barak stands by Israeli intel about Iranian nuke weapons program still moving forward. What possible interest did or does Israel have in trying to enter into confrontation with Iran? Why would Israel push for sanctions and invest its diplomatic capital (the little it has) trying to get the international community to sanction Iran if the intel was false? They wouldn’t. It’s idiotic of them to even try. But they did try and have spent enormous time and political capital to have the international community address the question of Iranian nukes. My sense is that they are honestly and deeply concerned.

  • The best article I’ve read so far to explain the “new findings” is from the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs and can be found here.

    There are two primary points having to do with why Israel and the US have different estimates of Iran’s nuclear capabilities (US says it’s far off, Israel says, get ready just in case).

    1. Israel military assessment goes by a worst case scenario estimation because they are the most vulnerable target and have most to lose. Israel is measuring Iran’s capabilities in technical terms (what they can do in practice).

    2. The US military assessment– here I guess we are talking about the NIE or the DOD– goes by measuring intentions, subjectively estimating Iran’s theoretical capability in line with whether they would actually use them. As a military superpower with a superior quality for striking, the US tones down the threat.

    I find this explanation of the discrepencies a very strong argument. Interested in what you all think as well.

    Maya Norton

    The New Jew: Blogging Jewish Philanthropy