What do I know? Maybe Sharon has done well to leave the Likud. If anything, his departure signals how far to the right the party has gone. It was obviously too difficult for Sharon to continue to survive when the hostility from his own party was so great, and while Labor has pulled out after Peretz became its leader.
I think Sharon has made a mistake. He should have stuck it out and fought inside the Likud, especially now that Labor is run by a man who will express values that are significantly different than the Likud’s. Instead, he’s going to try to do the impossible: build a viable 3rd party and do it in sufficient time that it will be competitive and also give him the opportunity to be Prime Minister again. Ben Gurion tried this and failed. The Center party from a couple of years ago tried this and failed. Shinui became co-opted by the system once a membership in the Cabinet was dangled before them.
Before Peretz came to lead Labor, I believe Sharon might have had a shot at many of the working classes and Mizrachim who would have voted for Sharon, or alternatively, for Likud. But Peretz is certain to draw some of those votes away. Peres has indicated that he’ll remain with Labor, so he won’t be bringing anybody to the new party. Therefore, the numbers don’t work. Between Shinui, Meretz (Yachad), Labor, Likud and Shas, there are probably about 90 Knesset seats in play. But you can assume that both Likud and Labor will keep about 15 and 20 seats respectively. So there are another 50 – 60 seats in play and Sharon will probably need 25-30 to win an election. Where will he find those types of numbers? He’d have to pull away half of the Likud vote, a third of the Labor vote and receive about half of Shinui and Shas’s mandates. He’ll have to do this while being criticized from both the Left and the Right.
Maybe I’m wrong, but I think he should have continued to use the Likud as a base.
If I’m right and he ends up as a leader of a secondary party, then the question becomes a vexing one – who leads? Who will be the next leader of the country? Will it be Netanyahu or Peretz? Is Mofaz a possibility, or even Silvan Shalom? The problem is that nobody on that list seems to be cut of the same cloth as Rabin, Peres or Sharon. None seems to be charismatic enough, or capable enough, to lead at a very challenging time and perhaps even a decisive time in Israel’s history. Will anybody even be able to put together a viable coalition? Will anybody have the broad support Sharon carries among so many centrist voters?
As I said when the guy with the profound moustache won the leadership race for Labor, the coming months are certain to be interesting.
TM, this is a good thing. We don’t need another ex-General/Special Forces operative/Always annoying guy (Peres) to be leader. Someone new, someone charismatic, someone from Tulane University.
Yes, I think Michael should run. Even though we’ve only met through blogs, hey, you know, what the hell.
encino yeled hereby endorses Micheal “He’s like Madonna and don’t got no last name” for Prime Minister of Israel.
More Muddling.
I know that the Israeli and international media have successfully convinced those who want to be convinced that the withdrawal reflected “the will of the Israeli people” but it aint so.
The Left bribed/dragooned Sharon because they no longer have a credible Mr. Security type of their own to function as a Trojan Horse.
Several recent polls indicate that Israelis know exactly what chaos awaits them with all the talk of EU-monitored border crossings and “safe corridors” between Gaza and the West Bank.
They voted for an end to these shenanigans, remember? They haven’t gone away, and – just like after Oslo – the situation is rapidly tanking since the left imposed its will on The Rest of Us.
Sharon has scuttled his own credibility as a Mr. Security. What else is there for him to run on?
It will be delicious to watch the kid-gloves come off as the media start attacking Sharon – he’s already done the left’s dirty work, he can (and will) be disposed of. Prepare to see the media halo about Sharon disappear.
The only good thing is that the opportunistic weasels of both Labor and Likud – shortsighted and labile as ever – are signing up for Sharon’s cruise to nowhere. Let them all sink into oblivion together with Arik.
Middle, do you stay up chasing down stories like this so that Jewlicious can scoop 1010 WINS News Radio? Jeez.
Michael: its Silvan Shalom.
Encino Yeled wrote: We don’t need another ex-General/Special Forces operative/Always annoying guy (Peres) to be leader”
He’s not so annoying as he’s funny. 🙂
Whoops! Sorry Michael, I meant themiddle. :-}
Me? Rosh ha-Memshalah? Why, now that I think about it, that’s a great idea, Yeled!
If elected, I hereby promise to turn this country around. My first law will be that if someone commits an egregious violation of your personal space, particularly on a bus, it is lawful to shoot them in a non-fatal area. If they look over your shoulder at your account info at the ATM, it is lawful to kill them.
Vote Michael! Vote often!
I thought for sure the first act of a “Memshelet Michael” would be to pass the “Visiting Student Hummus and Housing Act,” which guarantees all imported students with adequate housing and chickpea-based spreadables regardless of their income level. Oh well. I guess I don’t really understand your political platform after all.
No Esther, I stay up and work. Sometimes, for relief from work, I’ll read some news and in this case felt an unexplainable need to share my thoughts with you. You specifically, Esther. What do you think of my thoughts? And what the hell is 1010 WINS News? Have I just been insulted?
To quickly paraphrase the comment I posted on Jewschool: I think that if Sharon wants a shot at being PM again, he would’ve done better to join Labor. True, he wouldn’t be able to lead the party this time around, but in the future he’d likely have the support of the centrist and hawkish Laborniks, thanks to his sea change on the settlements and territory issue. And thus he’d have a much larger political base than he would with yet another new party (the last thing Israel needs).
It was a compliment. WINS claims to be up-to-the-minute coverage of news, etc. But I read it on Jewlicious last night and didn’t hear it on the radio till morning. But if you’d like to get in a fight about it, I’m open.
True, he wouldn’t be able to lead the party this time around, but in the future he’d likely have the support of the centrist and hawkish Laborniks
hmmmm, hmm. In the future? Don’t mean to be morbid, but it seems like these pioneers are forever immortal. How old is Peres? 114? They’re swiftly approaching that magical number of 120.
Michael: Can I be your campaign manager? I’d suggest forming a coalition with the Green as well as Homes and Hummus Party. Perhaps we can get Dov Charney to sponsor us with some free T-Shirts?
Esther, I know when I’m overmatched. I’d much rather have fun with you than find myself on the receiving end of your rapier-like wit. Anyway, it was just the comparison to AM radio that got me riled up. If you had compared me to NPR, I would have blown kisses your way.
On the other hand,
it might actually another brilliant and manipulative ploy:
Sharon still controls half the likud. The ‘loyal’ members who supported his turncoat stance are still in the likud and do not have to leave. Will they take Sharon’s double betrayal (by first highjacking the likud and implementing leftist policies and now by dividing the likud) or turn the other cheek, again, and join up with him after the elections?
Sharon will hopefully see the end of his political career in the next election. His cowardly surrender of Gaza without winning any concessions from Palestinian terrorists proves he’s just as willing as Barak to offer a “peace” proposal while ignoring the safety, security, and sovereignty of Israel proper.
It’s my sincere hope that Netanyahu wins the next election, and crushes Hamas and Islamic Jihad as only a real warrior knows how to do.
Netanyahu is a talker, not a doer. Sharon has played him like a piano. So far, the polls and Sharon’s maneuvering are such that unless the AG (Mazuz) indicts him for some reason, he’s actually going to have a chance to pull this off.
Of course, I’ll then have to eat my words in this post.
Good post.
TM, You know how I loathe to say how wrong you were and how right I was. But just this once, for the honor of Sharon, I’ll cave.
Not merely a tactician. A Brilliant Strategist. No “perhaps.”
Ah yes, Kelsey, I feel your pain and cannot imagine how you even bring yourself to write.
And yet, sadly, the jury is still out on some of his decisions.
One area where Sharon was undeniably a poor strategist but a phenomenal tactician was in managing his diet.
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